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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Almost all polls give Peña Nieto double-digit lead; one survey, Ipsos-Bimsa, puts López Obrador 6 to 7 points behind

Polls out this week continue to show the Institutional Revolutionary Party's Enrique Peña Nieto with a large lead for Sunday's presidential election. Seven of the eight polls show him with a double-digit advantage over populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador. However, the Ipsos-Bimsa poll gives Peña Nieto only a six- to seven-point lead, room for López Obrador to possibly work with. In 2000, Vicente Fox did about six points better than many polls indicated to win the election. Mexico's violence also has gotten many Mexicans to be poll-shy. Many Mexicans interviewed by MexicoPerspective in Tijuana have said the PRI and National Action Party have had their chances, and that it is the Democratic Revolution Party's turn. A recent Nexos ranking of pollsters had Ipsos-Bimsa generally doing good work, but not as good as Buendía and BGC-Ulíses Beltrán. Ipsos-Bima had López Obrador down six points when including the 15% who expressed no preference, and down seven points when those voters were stripped out.

  Reforma El Universal Buendía & Laredo Con Esta-dística Mitofsky Para-metría GEA-ISA (Milenio) Ipsos-Bimsa BGC-Ulíses Beltrán (Excélsior)
Peña Nieto (PRI coalition) 41 45 44 45 44 45 41 44
López Obrador (PRD coalition) 31 28 27 29 29 27 34 28
Vázquez Mota (PAN) 24 24.4 25 24 24 25 24 25