A leading source for news and analysis about Mexico and the U.S.-Mexican border.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Calderón says no alliance with PRD for joint presidential candidate next year;

Heriberto Félix Guerra drops out of PAN presidential nomination race

President Felipe Calderon said Friday that he could not see his National Action Party agreeing to a joint candidate with the Democratic Revolution Party in next year's presidential election. The PAN and PRD are leagues behind the Institutional Revolutionary Party in the polls. Story, Frontera.

Social Development Minister Heriberto Félix Guerra also dropped out of the race for the PAN presidential nomination on Friday. Story, Frontera. On Wednesday, Labor Minister Javier Lozano dropped out.


Thursday, July 21, 2011

Poll says PRI would win every state but Baja California
if presidential vote took place today

Frontera item also cites Tijuana Mayor Bustamante
as hoping Chris López will be the city's next mayor

A Parametría poll says that the Institutional Revolutionary Party would win every state in Mexico except for Baja California if the presidential race were held today. The vote will take place next year. The poll gives the PRI a 22-point lead over President Felipe Calderón's National Action Party.

The Tijuana newspaper Frontera said the poll has caused local PRIistas to wonder what they are doing wrong, especially since the PRI won all five mayor's races in the state last year.

Even though the PAN has won the last four Baja California governor's races beginning in 1989, the state's voters have gone back and forth between parties in other races. After going for left-of-center candidate Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas over Carlos Salinas in the presidential race in 1988 in large part because Cárdenas represented change, the state's relatively conservative voters swung back to the perceived safety of the PRI in violence-jarred 1994 before voting for the PAN in the 2000 and 2006 presidential races. All the state's municipalities and the state legislature have seen swings between PAN and PRI dominance from 1989 to now.

The state's next gubernatorial election is in 2013.

The same item in Frontera mentioning the Parametría poll also quoted Mayor Carlos Bustamante as saying Thursday he hoped that the person who succeeds him as mayor is Chris López, who is the city's administrator for the San Antonio de los Buenos section. López had arrived at City Hall when Bustamante was giving a press conference, and Bustamante was asked about the mountain of debt he was refinancing for the city. Bustamante said that the next mayor is going to be fortunate not to have juggle all the debt he is trying to deal with, and said that with any luck the next mayor would be Chris López ("ojalá que sea Chris López"), turning to look at López.

López was coy when asked about his ambitions in the 2013 mayoral race, the paper said. He clearly, however, is generating much more publicity in the media than any of the other administrators of the city's nine sections. He has been garnering a lot of coverage for public works projects and other action, much like Carlos Torres Torres did before Torres became the PAN candidate for mayor last year (only to lose to Bustamante). Torres still is garnering publicity as the Ministry of Social Development's agent in Tijuana.
Story, Frontera.
Update, Oct. 12, 2011: Chris López hands out 100,000 pesos ($7,500) in scholarship money to students.


Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Columnist writes that PRD candidate does not meet residency requirements to run for governor of Mexico state

Eduardo Ruiz-Healy writes that Alejandro Encinas, 57, does not meet the residency alejandro-encinasrequirements to be the Democratic Revolution Party's candidate for governor of Mexico state, but that the state electoral institute approved his candidacy anyway. Ruiz-Healy said Andrés Manuel López Obrador also had not met the residency requirements to run for mayor of Mexico City in 2000, but that his candidacy for the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) also was approved . López Obrador ran in 2000, and when he resigned to run for president in 2005, Encinas served the rest of López Obrador's term. >>>rest of story>>>

Monday, April 11, 2011

PRI captures youth vote

The Institutional Revolutionary Party in its quest to return to the presidency next year may capture a majority of the youth vote, Tijuana's Frontera newspaper reported Monday. The Reforma poll showed a majority of Mexicans ages 18-29 backing the PRI. In the 2012 presidential race, the poll also showed Mexico state Gov. Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI with a 45% to 24% lead over Andrés Manuel López Obrador and a 47% to 17% lead over Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard if Ebrard wound up being the candidate of the Democratic Revolution Party. Santiago Creel of President Felipe Calderón's National Action Party was third at 15% in both polls. PAN congressional leader Josefina Vázquez Mota, who is seeking the PAN nomination, was in Tijuana last week attempting to garner support for her run. The poll showed her trailing Creel. At this point six years ago, however, Creel had a wide lead over Calderón in the race for the PAN nomination. And López Obrador, by bypassing the first presidential debate and through other actions, blew a large lead in the 2006 general election and barely lost.

Meanwhile, a proposed coalition between the PAN and the PRD to run a joint candidate against the PRI in Mexico state's upcoming gubernatorial election has fallen apart.

Friday, February 18, 2011

PRI leader says her party, chastened by defeats in 2000 and 2006,
has learned its lessons and is going to be a victorious party of dialogue

beatriz paredesIf the Institutional Revolutionary Party returns to power at the national level next year, it won't be the return of the old PRI, but rather the arrival of the PRI of the 21st century, the party's leader said Thursday night.

Beatriz Paredes (right) told the Institute of the Americas in San Diego that such a victory would harken the arrival of a party engaged in dialogue.

She said some are frightened about the PRI's vertiginous resurgence, particularly as many thought the party's loss of the presidency in 2000 to the National Action Party's Vicente Fox was the preamble to the end of her political organization.

Paredes said the PRI instead has learned some hard lessons, particularly after the defeat of Roberto Madrazo in 2006, the first time the party finished third in a presidential election. >>>rest of story>>>

Jan. 19, 2011 (Wednesday)

PRI cannot lose

2012 election,

Loret de Mola says

By David Gaddis Smith

"There is no possibility that the PRI will lose the 2012 elections," journalist Rafael Loret de Mola told the COPARMEX business owners' association in Tijuana on Wednesday.
Rafael  Loret de Mola

2012 loret de mola libroHe said President Felipe Calderón's conservative National Action Party (PAN) has been too damaged by the drug violence sweeping Mexico and also does not have any candidates with the name recognition needed to win. He said Mexico's leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), which came ever so close to winning the presidential election in 2006, is too fractured to come back together.

The PAN's Vicente Fox was elected in 2000 after Mexicans tired of the 71-year presidential rule and corruption of the PRI, also known as the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Loret de Mola said Mexicans will return to what was "the almost-perfect dictatorship because the remedy was worse than the disease."

He said it was if Spaniards, 10 years after the death of dictator Francisco Franco, had resuscitated his body and returned him to power.
Loret de Mola, long a critic of the PRI, said its "mafias are still there – they never left."

Loret de Mola also said the PRI – which governs 19 of Mexico's 32 states – "will not be as easy to defraud as the PRD in 2006." Calderón defeated former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador by a tiny margin; López Obrador cried fraud and considers himself the legitimately elected president of Mexico.

Loret de Mola said Calderón was elected in part because many voters considered him to be the least bad of the major candidates – but said Calderón has turned out to be the worst after all, in part because his war against organized crime has caused so much bloodshed.

Despite the hard feelings between the left and right, the PRD and the PAN came up with some unity gubernatorial candidates last year that defeated their common enemy, the PRI. But Loret de Mola said he did not think the parties could possibly agree on a unity candidate in next year's presidential election.

The journalist said the PRI politician most likely to be elected president next year is popular Mexico state Gov. Enrique Peña Nieto, whose six-year term as governor ends this year. The photogenic Peña Nieto, 44, recently married soap opera star Angélica Rivera.

Last week, the governor published an op-ed piece in the Financial Times of London outlining how he would try to reduce violence in Mexico – a move which garnered him major publicity in the Mexican media, according to a blog item this week in the Economist.

Rafael Loret de Mola libro 2012
Despite Loret de Mola's revealing what he saw to be the ending, a number of people bought his new book, "2012: La Sucesión" (2012: The Succession, From Crime Scenology to Turbid Alliances), which has a cover photo of firemen trying to put out a blaze that at first glance appears to be of a home but which also shows presidential ballots going up in flames.


Loret de Mola leavened his talk with various conspiracy theories, including the one in which he said his father, a former PRI governor of Yucatan, was killed by the party in a 1986 car accident in Guerrero state. He said he had foretold the 1994 assassination of the PRI's presidential candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio, the year before. (Colosio was slain in Tijuana; a young gunman was the only person convicted in the crime.) Loret de Mola said many think the death of 1988 PAN presidential candidate in a 1989 accident in Sinaloa state involved a conspiracy and indicated that he was bewildered that the governments of Fox and Calderón did not reopen the case.

Monday, February 7, 2011

PAN wins majority of directly elected seats
in Baja California Sur legislature

Late returns from Sunday's election pushed the National Action Party (PAN) share of 16 directly elected seats in the Baja California Sur legislature to nine, according to results from the state electoral institute.

Gubernatorial winner Marcos Covarrubias Villaseñor of the PAN saw his plurality drop slightly Monday to 40.5%, to 33.5% for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and 21.4% for the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), which lost its hold on the governorship. An El Universal story says the Jalisco state native and former federal deputy is a farmer of garbanzo beans, corn, wheat and oranges in Comondú.

The PAN won nine of the legislature seats in question to four for the PRI and three for the PRD.

In the state's five municipal races, the PAN won in Comondú; the PRI won in Loreto and in the capital, La Paz; and the PRD in Los Cabos and Mulegé. The PRD had held all five municipalities previously.


Sunday, February 6, 2011

PAN wins governor's race
in Baja California Sur

Marcos Covarrubias VillaseñorMarcos Covarrubias Villaseñor of President Felipe Calderón's National Action Party (PAN) won the governor's race in Baja California Sur on Sunday. For the first time, governors in both states on the Baja California peninsula will represent the PAN. Gov. José Guadalupe Osuna Millán won the Baja California state race in 2007.

Covarrubias Villaseñor was leading with more than 41% of the vote late Sunday night to 34% for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). The leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), which currently holds the governorship, was third with nearly 20 percent.

It was unclear what Sunday's results could portend for next year's presidential election, in which the PRI is favored to return to power. The PRD won last week's gubernatorial election in Guerrero state.

The PAN appeared to have won at least seven of 16 directly elected seats in the Baja California Sur state legislature, to five for the PRI and three for the PRD. At least one race was too close to call. In the state's five municipal elections, however, preliminary results gave the PAN victory only in Comondú, with Los Cabos being too close to call. There, all three major parties were within striking distance of each other. The PRI was winning in La Paz and Loreto and the PRD in Mulegé.


Monday, Jan. 31, 2011

PRD wins Guerrero election

The Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) won Sunday's governor's election in Guerrero state and had a lead of more than 150,000 votes on Monday. The leftist party said Ángel HÁngel Heladio Aguirre Riveroeladio Aguirre Rivero's victory would spur its efforts to win Sunday's (Feb. 6) election in Baja California Sur state. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which is favored to win next year's presidential election, said it would challenge the results. The candidate of President Felipe Calderón's National Action Party (PAN) had dropped out of the race and threw his support to Aguirre Rivero's coalition. It is the first of six elections this year that may provide a preview of sorts for next year's election. Aguirre Rivero won all seven districts that Acapulco forms a part of.