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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Reforma poll shows Peña Nieto with large lead again; the paper's May 31 poll showing him with just 4-point advantage had confounded experts

Survey gives PRIista huge lead in the north and center-west of the country

Reforma polls June 14-17 poll % change from May 31 change from April 25 North % South % Center % Center-west %
Peña Nieto (PRI coalition) 42 +4 0 51 39 36 43
López Obrador (PRD coalition) 30 -4 +1 17 36 39 25
Vázquez Mota (PAN) 24 +1 -3 30 20 20 26
Quadri (PANAL) 4 -1 +2 2 5 5 6

Reforma newspaper's latest poll (PDF) shows Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate Enrique Peña Nieto with a double-digit lead again over populist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Its May 31 poll had confounded experts by showing Peña Nieto with only a 4-point advantage over the leftist Democratic Revolution Party coalition candidate, when other polls continued to give the PRIista a big lead.

The June 14-17 poll, taken after the June 10 debate, said that Peña Nieto, who already had a big advantage in northern states, has dramatically widened that lead. Mexico's north has traditionally been more attuned to Mexico's business interests, which Peña Nieto and the National Action Party's Josefina Vázquez Mota are seen to represent. In the poll, Peña Nieto's lead in the north increased 12 points to 51%, Vázquez Mota fell 2 points to 30% and López Obrador fell 7 points to 17%. Peña Nieto even leads in the south, where López Obrador rolled up a big advantage six years ago. López Obrador only leads in the center, which includes Mexico City, which has been governed by the Democratic Revolution Party since 1997.

The poll showed that the PRI coalition still has a chance of getting a congressional majority, with PRI congressional support in the 43% to 44% range. Congressional majority parameters.

Meanwhile, Robert Gil Zuarth, Vázquez Mota's campaign coordinator, said a recent PAN poll showed her in second place within striking distance of Peña Nieto. An Excélsior poll also put her in second place. López Obrador continued to insist that his polling shows him in first place.

And columnist Leo Zuckermann wrote (PDF) that recent polls published by El Universal and Mitofsky showed Peña Nieto with 37% hard support, a figure he said would make it very difficult for López Obrador or Vázquez Mota to win.

This week's El Universal poll.