A leading source for news and analysis about Mexico and the U.S.-Mexican border.
By David Gaddis Smith, MexicoPerspective.com
President Barack Obama, defying the expectations of many, easily won re-election in the electoral college Tuesday, rolling up more than 300 votes. Some of those electoral votes were attributed to the strength of the Latino vote in states such as New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Non-Cuban Hispanics also put Obama in a good position to win Florida. Latino votes broke 3-to-1 for Obama.
In Mexico, those opposed to the Institutional Revolutionary Party's Enrique Peña Nieto complained that polls were biased toward him. In the end, although the polls correctly pointed to his July win, they vastly overstated Peña Nieto's margin of victory.
In the United States, many opposed to Obama complained that polls were biased toward him. Republicans chose to believe Republican-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports and other pro-GOP surveying firms that indicated that Mitt Romney could win in Minnesota, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. Those outlier polls wound up off the mark. Rasmussen's tie in Ohio wound up being a 2-point advantage for Obama; Rasmussen's even in Wisconsin wound up being a 5-point advantage for Obama; Obama's late 2-point Rasmussen lead in New Hampshire wound up being 5 points; Rasmussen's 3-point lead for Romney in Colorado wound up being a 3-point advantage for Obama; Rasmussen's 2-point lead for Romney in Virginia wound up being a 3-point advantage for Obama.
It all goes to show that Rasmussen and some other U.S. pollsters such as Gallup need to go back to the drawing board, just as many Mexican pollsters do. And it reflects badly on wishful-thinking Republican thinkers like George Will and Peggy Noonan, who put their faith on outliers in polls to come up with their rosy predictions for a big Romney victory.
One Republican who came out looking good was Matthew Dowd, who served as an analyst for ABC News. He correctly predicted an Obama popular and electoral vote victory and said Republicans have to realize that the electoral map has changed. He noted that George W. Bush would likely have lost this election because of the increase in the Latino and other minority vote. Republicans cannot afford to continue to just rely on the white vote, he said.
Also looking good was New York Times poll guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, who had said the polls clearly pointed to an Obama victory. Silver also appeared on "The Colbert Report" on Monday night and said his analysis was not rocket science, but just a dispassionate look at polling data. When 22 out of 23 polls favor Obama, he pointed out, it certainly would appear that an Obama victory was imminent.
Meanwhile on Telemundo, former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda said he thought Obama should take immediate action to deal with immigration issues and should put a brake on deportations and do what he can to provide a path for Mexican and other migrants to be able to stay in the United States.
Telemundo anchorman José Díaz-Balart indicated that Obama owed it to the Latino community to get comprehensive immigration reform passed, as he might owe his re-election to the Hispanic vote.