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Columnist Ana María Salazar says a new movie about the March 1994 assassination of Institutional Revolutionary Party presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio in Tijuana might affect the July 1 presidential election. Questions about the assassination, which most Mexicans blame on the PRI in some way, may have been a factor that helped National Action Party presidential candidate Vicente Fox topple the PRI in 2000.
Salazar said "Colosio: El Asesinato" is 8% funded by the federal government and wondered whether that was enough for the Federal Electoral Institute to determine that the film should not be shown before the election. She said that if the PRI asked for a delay in the showing of the film, however, it would come under criticism for engaging in the censorship it was long known for. A movie that came out before the 2000 election, "La Ley de Herodes," also did not help the PRI.
While producer Mónica Lozano's movie is described as historical fiction, Salazar said it raises more questions than answers about Colosio's killing and points to collusion among drug traffickers, the state, and big business, a highly unlikely origin for the assassination committed by Mario Aburto Martínez, who hated drug traffickers and the PRI. Salazar likened the film to Oliver Stone's "JFK," which wove a plot combining various theories about why Lee Harvey Oswald killed John F. Kennedy in Dallas in November 1963. The trouble is, it has to be one theory, or another, or another; logically, all the theories cannot be combined into one (unless, perhaps, in a movie!).
Salazar said that if the federal government funded the film with the idea of hurting the PRI and helping the PAN win the July 1 election, the irony is that populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador has moved past the PAN's Josefina Vázquez Mota in the polls at the same time that PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto has been dropping. While Peña Nieto still has a healthy lead in most polls, López Obrador said Thursday that the PRI candidate is "disinflating." Indeed, a Reforma poll this week put López Obrador within four points of Peña Nieto.
Peña Nieto is scheduled to appear at the bullring in Playas de Tijuana at 11:30 a.m. Sunday. Story on Peña Nieto visit, Frontera (PDF).
Salazar's column (PDF).
Announcement for June 5 showing of movie in Tijuana, Frontera (PDF).
Update, June 8: Story about the movie.