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April 15, 2012

Estudiantes Tecos to be relegated to 2nd division

It's official: The Estudiantes Tecos of the Autonomous University of Guadalajara are being relegated to the second division. As a result of their 1-1 tie with Puebla, and Atlas's 1-0 victory over Monterrey, the Tecos have a total of 100 points over the last three years, and Atlas 107. The most points the Tecos could accumulate in the next two games is six, meaning they will have the worst record over the last three years. Adios, Tecos.

Updated March 24, 2012

Xolos avoid being relegated with 2-0 victory over Atlas

The Tijuana Xolos, with a 2-0 victory over Atlas, have avoided being relegated back to the second division this year. The Tecos, after their 4-0 loss to Monterrey on Saturday, can at most reach a win-loss-tie percentage of 1.0784, while the worst the Xolos can do is 1.1177.

Three teams still have not been mathematically eliminated from being the one team relegated. Still, it appears that the relegated team will be either the Estudiantes Tecos or Atlas. The Tecos have 95 points, while Atlas has 102. The next worst team is Querétaro with 106. All lost Saturday. To avoid relegation, the Tecos must probably win at least four of the season's remaining five games and have Atlas lose most of its. Given that the Tecos have only won one game all season, that scenario seems unlikely. On March 11, Frontera newspaper ran a story over two pages on the Tecos' likely drop to the second division with the headline: "A Death Foretold." First page (PDF). Second page.

Relegation table below.
Second relegation table that uses a formula taking into account that the Xolos have played far fewer games.

The bet here at the beginning of the season was that the Xolos would win more games this season than last and avoid relegation, but that they certainly would need to generate more offense and avoid costly defensive lapses such as the one where Morelia had three players behind the last non-goalie defender in week one of play and scored. Week one game story: Xolos 1, Morelia 1.

Finally, how might staying in the first division affect former Tijuana Mayor Jorge Hank Rhon's chances in the 2013 Baja California gubernatorial race? Hank Rhon's Caliente Group sponsors the team; Hank Rhon is a front-runner in the race for the Institutional Revolutionary Party gubernatorial nomination.
May 2011 story on winners, losers in Xolos' ascension to first division.

The Xolos now have five wins, five ties and two losses, putting them in sixth place place in the 18-team league going into week 13. The first eight teams make the playoffs. Last season's Xolo record was three wins, nine ties and five losses (18 points in 17 games, 1.0588 points per game).

 

 

 

 

Team   Games Points* Average Titles /
Last title
Best/worst % it could have at season end
Estudiantes Tecos tecos logo 97 95 0.9896 1 / 1994 1.0784/.9314
Atlas
atlas logo 97 102 1.0515 1 / 1951 1.1471/1.0000
Querétaro
queretaro logo 97 106 1.0928   1.1863/1.0392
Puebla
puebla logo 97 113 1.1649 2 / 1990 1.2549/1.1078
Atlante
atlante logo 97 115 1.1856 3/2007 1.2745/1.1275
San Luis Potosí
san luis potosi logo 97 117 1.2062   1.2941/1.1471
Jaguares
jaguares logo 97 119 1.2268   1.3137/1.1667
Tijuana Xolos
xolos logo 29 38 1.3103   1.5588/1.1177
* 3 points for a win, 1 for a tie, 0 for a loss
Losses and ties for Tijuana move the team's average down more quickly than losses and ties for the other teams, because the Xolos have fewer games played. On the other side of the coin, wins for Tijuana move the team's average up more quickly than wins for the other teams.
The relegation is based on a team's record in the top professional league in the last three years, or six seasons. Tijuana's record will only be based on one year, or two seasons, because it only moved up to the first division last year, while Necaxa was sent down. Tijuana's relegation percentage at the end of the season will be based on 34 games, while the other teams' percentage will be based on 102 games.

Update, Jan. 11: Relegation story in El Mexicano (PDF).
Relegation standings, in Frontera, Jan. 9 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Jan. 16 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Jan. 23 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Jan. 30 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 6 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 13 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 20 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 27 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 5 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 12 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 19 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 26 (PDF)

Update, Feb. 29: El Mexicano publishes story about how Xolos are close to meeting their goal of remaining in the first division. Story (PDF).

previous week's story

Updated March 19, 2012

Can Xolos avoid being relegated at the end
of the Clausura 2012 season?

Update, Feb. 18: With 2-0 win over Querétaro, the answer appears to be definitely yes
Update, March 2: With 2-0 victory over Tecos Estudiantes, Xolos appear to have punched their ticket to stay and Tecos appear to be on their way down

Tijuana's heroic 1-1 tie with América on March 10 after ending the game down three men and the Tecos Estudiantes' 0-0 tie with Pumas on March 11 put the Xolos in even better position to avoid relegation this year. In fact, the team might even make the playoffs. Standings, Univisión.

The Tecos' loss to Morelia on Friday, March 16, makes it look like the Tecos will go down. As a result, Jaguares and San Luis Potosí were mathematically eliminated from the possibility of being relegated, and Atlante and Puebla are one tie or win (or a Teco loss or tie) away from also being mathematically eliminated from the possibility of being relegated.

Six teams, including the Xolos, which lost 1-0 to Tigres on Saturday, March 17, still have not been mathematically eliminated from being the one team relegated. Still, it appears that the relegated team will be either the Estudiantes Tecos or Atlas. The Tecos have 95 points, while Atlas has 102. The next worst team is Querétaro with 106. To avoid relegation, the Tecos must probably win at least four of the season's remaining six games and have Atlas lose most of its. Given that the Tecos have only won one game all season, that scenario seems unlikely. On March 11, Frontera newspaper ran a story over two pages on the Tecos' likely drop to the second division with the headline: "A Death Foretold." First page (PDF). Second page.

Relegation table below.
Second relegation table that uses a formula taking into account that the Xolos have played far fewer games.

The bet here at the beginning of the season was that the Xolos would win more games this season than last and avoid relegation, but that they certainly would need to generate more offense and avoid costly defensive lapses such as the one where Morelia had three players behind the last non-goalie defender in week one of play and scored. Week one game story: Xolos 1, Morelia 1.

Finally, how might relegation, or staying in the first division, affect former Tijuana Mayor Jorge Hank Rhon's chances in the 2013 Baja California gubernatorial race? Hank Rhon's Caliente Group sponsors the team; Hank Rhon is a front-runner in the race for the Institutional Revolutionary Party gubernatorial nomination.
May 2011 story on winners, losers in Xolos' ascension to first division.

The Xolos now have four wins, five ties and two losses, putting them in eighth place place in the 18-team league going into week 12. The first eight teams make the playoffs. Last season's Xolo record was three wins, nine ties and five losses (18 points in 17 games, 1.0588 points per game).

Team   Games Points* Average Titles /
Last title
Best/worst % it could have at season end
Estudiantes Tecos tecos logo 96 95 0.9896 1 / 1994 1.1078/.9314
Atlas
atlas logo 96 102 1.0625 1 / 1951 1.1765/1.0000
Querétaro
queretaro logo 96 106 1.1042   1.2157/1.0392
Atlante
atlante logo 96 112 1.1667 3/2007 1.2745/1.0980
Puebla
puebla logo 96 112 1.1667 2 / 1990 1.2745/1.0980
Jaguares
jaguares logo 96 116 1.2083   1.3137/1.1373
San Luis Potosí
san luis potosi logo 96 117 1.2188   1.3235/1.1471
Tijuana Xolos
xolos logo 28 35 1.2500   1.6563/1.0294
* 3 points for a win, 1 for a tie, 0 for a loss
Losses and ties for Tijuana move the team's average down more quickly than losses and ties for the other teams, because the Xolos have fewer games played. On the other side of the coin, wins for Tijuana move the team's average up more quickly than wins for the other teams.
The relegation is based on a team's record in the top professional league in the last three years, or six seasons. Tijuana's record will only be based on one year, or two seasons, because it only moved up to the first division last year, while Necaxa was sent down. Tijuana's relegation percentage at the end of the season will be based on 34 games, while the other teams' percentage will be based on 102 games.

Update, Jan. 11: Relegation story in El Mexicano (PDF).
Relegation standings, in Frontera, Jan. 9 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Jan. 16 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Jan. 23 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Jan. 30 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 6 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 13 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 20 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, Feb. 27 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 5 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 12 (PDF)
Relegation standings in Frontera, March 19 (PDF)

Update, Feb. 29: El Mexicano publishes story about how Xolos are close to meeting their goal of remaining in the first division. Story (PDF).

A theoretical table, multiplying Tijuana's games and points by three
to show relatively how many points it needs to avoid relegation

Jan. 19, 2011: In the following table, Tijuana's games and point totals are tripled, because Tijuana's relegation percentage will be based on 34 of its games, while the other teams will have played 102. For Tijuana in the following table, a win counts nine points instead of three, and a tie three points instead of one. It dramatically shows how Tijuana needed wins to avoid relegation: On Feb. 5, it trailed the last-place team by 15 points under this scenario, but that it made up that difference quickly by winning. If the Estudiantes Tecos continue to average only a point a game, they would finish with 102 points. Tijuana already has 105 (tripled) points, with seven games left to play. Tijuana needs to do much better than it has, however, to avoid the possibility of relegation in future years.

Team   Games Points* Average
Estudiantes Tecos tecos logo 96 95 0.9896
Atlas
atlas logo 96 102 1.0625
Querétaro
queretaro logo 96 106 1.1042
Atlante
atlante logo 96 112 1.1667
Puebla
puebla logo 96 112 1.1667
Jaguares
jaguares logo 96 116 1.2083
San Luis Potosí
san luis potosi logo 96 117 1.2188
Tijuana Xolos
xolos logo 28/84* 35/105* 1.2500

 

* Points are three for a win, one for a tie and zero for a loss, except for Tijuana, where that figure is tripled.

@ Tijuana's games played and points are tripled to provide a baseline showing how many points the team needs to score this season to avoid relegation. At the end of the season, Tijuana will have 102 theoretical games played when its 34 games are multiplied by three; the other teams will have actually played in 102 games.

 

Material previously used in this story:
Estudiantes and Atlas, in an exercise in futility, played to a 0-0 tie on Friday, Feb. 3. The Xolos tied Puebla 1-1 on Sunday, Feb. 5, but improved to fifth-worst in the relegation standings. The Xolos 0-0 tie at home against Cruz Azul on Sunday, Feb. 12, however, put them only ahead of the Tecos, Atlas and Querétaro in the relegation standings.

At the beginning of the Clausura 2012 season, the Tijuana Xolos appeared to be in immediate danger of being relegated back to the second division after having been elevated to the first division last year. The team needed wins. While both the Xolos and Atlas tied their games over the first weekend of play, and were tied in relegation percentage going into the game, the Xolos relegation percentage went down more because the Xolos have fewer games played that go into the relegation formula. Still, because the last-place Estudiantes Tecos, Atlas and Querétaro lost and Tijuana won on the second weekend of play, Tijuana moved from having the second-worst relegation percentage to fourth-worst. The Tecos lost 2-0 Jan. 13 at home against San Luis Potosí and their coach, José Luis Salgado, resigned; the Tecos tied América 1-1 on Jan. 20 to remain in last place. The Xolos defeated Monterrey 1-0 with a last-minute goal Jan. 14 in Tijuana. Poor Querétaro lost after a goal was scored against it on a continuation after a ball went out of bounds but was not called. In week 3, the Xolos beat Chivas 2-0; the Tecos tied América 1-1; and Atlas lost to Querétaro 2-1. In week four, the last-place Tecos lost to the Autonomous University of Nuevo León Tigers 2-1; Querétaro and Pachuca tied 1-1; Atlas gained a little breathing room from the Tecos by beating Toluca 1-0; Puebla beat the Jaguares 1-0; and América beat San Luis Potosí 3-1. Atlante lost a victory when Cruz Azul player Emanuel Villa scored a goal using his arm and it was not called; the game ended in a 2-2 tie. In week five, the Xolos tied Puebla 1-1; Estudiantes Tecos and Atlas tied 0-0; Atlante beat Querétaro 3-2; Cruz Azul beat Jaguares 2-0; and Monterrey beat San Luis Potosí 3-0. In week six, the Xolos tied Cruz Azul 0-0; Tecos lost to Pachuca 2-0; América and Atlas tied 1-1; Toluca beat Atlante 2-0; Puebla beat UNAM 2-0; and Tigres beat San Luis Potosí 2-0.

After starting off the year with a tie and two wins, Xolos moved from having second-worst relegation percentage at beginning of season to seventh-worst, putting them out of immediate danger. But a 3-1 loss in week four to Santos Laguna moved the Xolos back to having the fourth-worst record before a week seven win over Querétaro appeared to put the Xolos out of harm's way again. A week nine 2-0 win against the Estudiantes Tecos of the Autonomous University of Guadalajara appears to have given the Xolos their ticket to stay in the upper division.

 

Even though the Estudiantes Tecos beat Atlante 2-1 on Feb. 17 in Week 7, the Xolos' 2-0 win over Querétaro on Feb. 18 managed to put more distance between them and the Estudiantes. That is because the Xolos have fewer games played that count in the relegation formula, and so each win for the Xolos moves up their winning percentage more than wins for teams that have played more games. In week 8, on Feb. 25, the Xolos tied Toluca, but put more distance between themselves and the Tecos because the Tecos lost to Jaguares 1-0. Atlas also gained against the Xolos by beating San Luis Potosí 1-0.