A leading source for news and analysis about Mexico and the U.S.-Mexican border.

Monday, June 18, 2012

El Universal-Buendía & Laredo post-debate poll continues to show Peña Nieto with big lead, and López Obrador momentum stalled

Voters say it would be best for country if presidential winner also gets congressional majority, but are divided on whether return of PRI to presidency is good or bad for Mexican democracy

Buendía & Laredo polls June 11-15 poll change from early June change from May 8
Peña Nieto (PRI coalition) 37 -0.8 -4.9
López Obrador (PRD coalition) 23.5 -0.4 +2.6
Vázquez Mota (PAN) 21.4 -1 +2
Quadri (PANAL) 3 +0.8 +0.9
undecided or no response 15.1 +1.4 -0.6


A Buendía & Laredo poll published by El Universal continued to show Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate Enrique Peña Nieto with a large lead in the polls.

The survey, taken after the June 10 debate, appears to show that populist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador's momentum has stalled and that Peña Nieto has managed to slow the rate of his fall in the polls.

One of the most significant findings in the poll appeared to be that 60% of Mexicans said it would be best for the country if the party that wins the presidency also wins a majority in Congress.

But another finding was that while 43% said the return of the PRI to power is a symbol that democracy works in Mexico, 39% said the return would be a problem for Mexican democracy.

Those polled saw Peña Nieto putting in the best performance at the debate with a 46% excellent or good rating, followed by the National Action Party's Josefina Vázquez Mota with 42%, López Obrador at 39% and the New Alliance's Gabriel Quadri at 27%.

Story, Frontera (PDF). Second page (PDF).